Greg Friedman on the Great Repricing of Hotels

This week on Not Done, I sat down with Greg Friedman, CEO of Peachtree Group — one of the most active hotel investors and lenders in the country — for a real conversation about where the industry is actually headed.

Greg’s built an $8.5B platform spanning equity, debt, and operations. He’s seen every side of the business — and right now, he says we’re entering “complicated, unprecedented waters.

🔑 “We’re in complicated, unprecedented waters.”

Greg broke down the macro landscape better than anyone I’ve heard in months:

  • The Fed is cutting short-term rates, but the 10-year Treasury keeps climbing above 4%.

  • That means asset values stay suppressed as cap rates rise and buyers can’t pencil deals.

  • Equity flows are limited — but debt liquidity is back. The catch? It’s expensive.

  • The result: a split market where disciplined operators survive and the rest scramble.

⚡️Other Highlights

  • Owner Fatigue = Opportunity. One-third of hotel loans will mature in the next 12 months. Expect more workouts, trades, and consolidation.

  • Brands are Misaligned. Greg didn’t hold back: owners take the risk, brands take the margin. He believes AI and data will eventually disrupt the 20-year franchise model.

  • Development Could Win Again. With supply at historic lows (~0.7%), projects started now may open into a favorable imbalance by 2027.

  • Leadership Wisdom. “Culture isn’t what’s on a wall — it’s how you treat people daily.”

Josiah Mackenzie on People, AI, and the Future of Hospitality (Drops Thursday)

This Thursday on Not Done, I flip the mic on Josiah Mackenzie — the #1 hospitality influencer in the world and host of Hospitality Daily.

If you work in hotels, you already know Josiah’s name. He’s interviewed 1,000+ industry leaders, runs marketing for Actabl, and sees the business from both sides — tech and talent, boardroom and front line.

⚡️ 5 Key Highlights of Josiah’s Episode:

🔹

Insight

1. People > Processes

“The best hotels aren’t systems — they’re people.” Culture and individuality beat standardization.

2. Capital Needs Context

Private equity can fuel growth or destroy value — it all depends on incentives and transparency.

3. AI = Amplified Curiosity

“AI is like having a team of PhDs in your pocket.” Those who ask better questions win.

4. Digitize Before You Automate

“If it’s not digitized, AI can’t touch it.” Clean data is step one.

5. Data = the New Asset

Owners who treat data like real estate will dominate the next decade.

And now a quick word from Sloan…

2026 Hotel Labor Strategy - 2026 BUDGET SEASON!

💡 WHEN BUDGETING LABOR, DO THIS:

  1. Shift from Revenue to Volume-Based Planning
    Labor forecasts should be tied to real workload drivers—occupied rooms, covers, events—not just revenue.

  2. Translate Volume into Labor Standards
    Set benchmarks (minutes per room clean, guests per server) to reliably convert demand into staffing levels.

  3. Plan for Scenarios, Not Averages
    Build flexible models for occupancy surges, cancellations, or event-driven changes so staffing adjusts dynamically.

  4. Unify Finance & Operations
    Volume-based labor models give finance and operations a shared language for variance analysis and accountability.

  5. Operationalize the Budget
    Embed labor targets directly into scheduling tools and dashboards; monitor deviations in real time.

  6. Empower Managers with Tech
    Provide mobile tools and authority so managers can flex schedules as business levels shift throughout the day.

  7. Keep Standards Dynamic
    Review and update labor standards regularly as service levels, guest mix, and offerings evolve.

  8. Measure, Learn, and Correct Early
    Track scheduled vs. actual vs. budgeted hours weekly (or per shift) to prevent drift and protect margins.

Keep Listening!

Cheers, Sloan

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